How Does Terrorism End?

By Chris Smith | November 17, 2008

It’s a simple question, isn’t it?  Sometimes in order to solve the most complex problems, one has to take a step back and re-examine the basics.  Earlier this year, RAND published a landmark study on the end of terrorism that seems to have received very little national attention.

As Barack Obama prepares to assume the Presidency, the time is right to reassess our global “war on terror” and change the way we think about prosecuting Al Qaeda.

The comprehensive study analyzes 648 terrorist groups that existed between 1968 and 2006. The most common way that terrorist groups end — 43 percent – was via a transition to the political process.

The second most common way that terrorist groups end — 40 percent – was through police and intelligence services either apprehending or killing the key leaders of these groups.

Military force was effective in only 7 percent of the cases examined; in most instances, military force is too blunt an instrument to be successful against terrorist groups

So, in 83% of historical dealings with terrorism organizations, engagement in the political process and policing brought about an end to a terrorism network.  The study is not simply observational, it offers a strategy for moving forward in the global campaign against Al Qaeda and other affiliated groups.

The study recommends the United States should adopt a two-front strategy: rely on policing and intelligence work to root out the terrorist leaders in Europe, North America, Asia and the Middle East, and involve military force — though not necessarily the U.S. military — when insurgencies are involved.

So, military force as a responsorial force to insurgency while putting forth a primary effort of diplomacy and policing.  Sounds a lot like John Kerry’s proposed strategy in 2004 and Barack Obama’s proposed strategy in 2008.  Both were ridiculed by the right as waving the “white flag of surrender”, when in essence, it is the historically smarter approach.

There is a lot of data to review here and it’s not simple to break it down in a black/white analysis that we are so used to in our political discourse.  Give it a read and let’s discuss it.

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Ron Paul and The Future of The GOP

By Chris Smith | November 16, 2008

In 2004, a spunky and underrated small state Governor captivated the base of the Democratic Party in the early stages of the Presidential Primary.  He appealed to the members of the party who were tired of Clintonian triangulation and efforts to move to the center and launched a viral, internet-based campaign that became a scaffold model for future candidates.

After the establishment wing of the party nominated John Kerry due to “electability“, Howard Dean was rewarded for his early campaign success with the job of Chairman of the Democratic National Committee.  Dean immediately began implementing a 50 state strategy for the party, focused on grassroots fundraising and brought about a return to traditional liberal ideology as the proud center of the party platform.

Now, as the GOP surveys the landscape after a devastating loss in the 2008 general election, they must take stock of who they are as a party.  Will they return to their roots as the party of small government, tax reform, and a prudent and cautious foreign policy?  That was the party of which I was a member.  Or will they continue their march towards being a regional party with a big government mindset and christianist values?  When you define your party platform, I think you have to define from the fringe and work your way back to the center.  For all intents and purposes, the Republican Party has two fringe factions at this point.

Essentially, who will they model themselves after, Ron Paul or Sarah Palin?  It is the choice of a generation for Republicans.

While Paul was marginalized by many members of his own party during the primary as some right wing whackjob, his platform was right out of the paleo-conservative constitutionalist playbook as written by Barry Goldwater.

Oddly enough, the actual right wing whackjob, Sarah Palin, was embraced by her party with nearly the same fervor with which they rejected Ron Paul.  Palin is a neo-con (a dumb one at that) and shares in the big govenment ideology of her party with a heavy focus on the churchin’ (wink).  Palin herself represents the logical follow-on to President Bush, with a heavy dose of high school bitchiness and condescending religion.  Her wing of the party is populated by the likes of Bobby Jindal, Mitch McConnell and Mike Huckabee.  While Ron Paul is a christian, he does not make it the centerpiece of his campaign identity or platform.

So, the GOP is at a crossroads.  The Democrats hold the Presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, the majority of Governorships and the GOP is stumbling about like Rush Limbaugh in a pharmacy.  The smart play would seem to lay the foundation of an opposition party which would be everything an Obama Administration and a Democratic Congress is not.

Can Ron Paul be a leader in the way that Howard Dean was after 2004?  Does the GOP sense a need to change course from their big government, christianist platform?  If not Paul, who can the GOP look to as a ;eader on policy and platform?  Mitt Romney?  Tim Pawlenty? Chalie (Definitely not gay) Crist?  Newt Gingrich?

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State Budget Woes and Public Unions

By Chris Smith | November 11, 2008

It’s that time of year.

Immediately following election season, we are deluged with a different series of radio, print and TV advertisements.  They come from state public employee unions describing a  New York State that intends to return criminals to the street and will kick your sick old Nana to the curb.  Based upon their description, the entire state will descend into an alternate reality version of 28 Days Later if cuts are made to the state budget.

Of course, they have solutions!  These are solutions that our state legislators haven’t considered and will allow for normalcy to continue without one iota of sacrifice from public employees!  Everyone wins!  Well, except for the rest of us who are, ummm, not public employees.

Their big ideas for closing our $10,000,000,000 budget shortfall?

- Raise taxes on the wealthy

- Reduce consultant costs by instituting a freeze on all new consultant contracts and hiring more state employees

- Enact the Bigger, Better Bottle Bill (aka the answer to everything)

- Eliminate or severely restrict overtime by hiring full-time employees to handle the overtime hours.

They have other recommendations, but they are primarily focused on either finding new tax revenue or putting in place cost controls that directly benefit the unions.  Nowhere in any of their proposals will you find suggestions for spending cuts.  You may be saying to yourself, “Geek, why does this surprise you?  Why would they advocate for something which would harm their membership?”

Well, I’m not surprised.  But, I do yearn for a day when the first thing we think about in this state isn’t how to bilk more fees from LLC’s or finding new and exciting ways to generate revenue, it’s to think about what extraneous programs and authorities we can cut.

Just thought I’d share my dream with you.

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The Price of Palin

By Chris Smith | November 5, 2008

The conventional wisdom on the Presidential election seems to point to the economic meltdown as the point in the season when Obama broke away from McCain in the polls and established himself as the definitive frontrunner.  I couldn’t disagree more.

The point at which things fell apart for John McCain?  September 24th, the first night of the Sarah Palin interview with Katie Couric.

The rolling three day averages for McCain went into the shitter shortly after Palin was humiliated by the least serious network anchor in television history.  Getting intellectually pwned by Katie Couric is akin to getting your ass kicked by a drunken dwarf.  Palin killed the McCain camp in traditional conservative circles and did nothing but alienate independent voters and women.  McCain’s favorability ratings dwindled and then Tina Fey happened.  From that point on, the election was a fait accompli in my eyes.

Anyhow, it was obvious from jump street that this woman was woefully unqualified for national office.  Of course, McCain and the right wing media machine defended her and accused the critics of media elitism and cultural snobbery rather than admit she was unqualified.

They didn’t vet her, she was a hail mary selection meant to bump the numbers and she was a completely unserious pick.  As the post-election recriminations begin, we are finding out just how incredibly reckless, cynical and misguided her selection really was.

Her lack of readiness and tremendous negatives forced McCain towards the scorched earth campaign he launched in the final month due to her inability to right his faltering candidacy.

As Carl Cameron of Fox News eagerly reports (he’s so giddy to tell the story he uses the word “knowledgeability”), there were incredibly fundamental problems with Ms. Palin as a candidate.  Shep Smith responds with the requisite dignity.

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Whereas Bill O’Reilly acts like a defensive tool when given the story.

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Africa is a country?  Misunderstanding of basic civics?  Didn’t know what countries were in NAFTA?  Fucking hell.  The most troubling aspect of all of this is that the McCain looked America in the eye and said she was ready to be a hearbeat away from the Presidency.  Country First?

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President Obama’s America

By Chris Smith |

I was in the tank for Obama since I met him during his run for the US Senate in 2003.  I heard him speak at a rally in Dowtown Chicago and I thought he was one of the most thoughtful and intelligent politicians I had ever seen.  Most of us who volunteered for that campaign thought that he would one day become the first African American President of the United States.  However, none of us thought that day would come five short years later.

It’s been interesting to listen to various pundits on both right and left wing talk radio today.  To listen to wingnut assclowns like Tom Bauerle and Sandy Beach, Obama is a reincarnation of Adolph Hitler.  Yes, they both inexplicably drew that comparison today.  Dropping in on the Ed Schultz Show and Randi Rhodes, you’d think we just elected the Baby Jesus to the office of the President.

Obama often spoke of bringing the country together, to recognize our shared hopes and dreams and to no longer define ourselves by our differences.  Today of all days, it seems as if those differences have never been more exposed.  What will become of America under Obama?  Will he crumble under the weight of the expectations of the left?  Will he be cowed by an unyielding right wing attack machine which still clings to the hope that Obama will be exposed as an Islamo-fascist sleeper agent sent here to destroy America like a real life Yuri?

Who knows.  But he is now my President and I feel like this nation has begun to turn the corner on a dark chapter in its history.

To lighten things up a bit…Welcome to Obamatopia.

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How McCain Can Win

By Chris Smith | November 4, 2008

It would take a massive reversal of fortune and a comeback never before seen in American politics, but a McCain victory IS possible.  Here’s how I see it breaking down.

In this map, you’ll see that McCain has won each tossup state and even taken a state or two that is comfortably in Obama’s column.

Is it possible?  Sure, if you think every single poll taken in the last two months is flawed and believe there will be a massive Republican voter suppression effort underway in seven states.  Is it likely?  Not really.

McCain would have to reverse the trend in every single swing state and steal PA from Obama.

Also, I maintain that Obama is going to take Georgia which would essentially make it game, set and match.

Think McCain can do it?  Tell me why.

For more polling crack, head over to fivethirtyeight.com For a political nerd like me, it’s like porn.

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Election Day Esoterica

By Chris Smith |

Some random musings that came to me while wondering why there is no such thing as an “extra medium” sized shirt…

- The national voting apparatus is completely unprepared for the massive turnout that will happen tomorrow.  The 50 state strategy and massive voter registration effort that Obama employed could blow up in his face with huge lines, typical election day voter suppression an states that are unprepared for the scrutiny of swing state electioneering.  Virgina and Colorado are completely unprepared for the turnout.

-  Two things the pollsters seem to be willfully ignoring because there are no models for it.  The massive African American turnout in urban areas and the number of people who don’t respond to polls because they are cell phone only types.  Both of these items could flip the script on every poll published

-  Why is it that every voter in a Canadian federal election can vote with a pencil and a piece of paper and they can tabulate the votes from Moose Jaw to Vancouver to Newfoundland in less than 8 hours?  While in the US, we have over 100 different pieces of voting technology and it’s a total crapshoot if people can properly use it?

- Let’s agree on a constitutional amendment to make federal elections a national holiday, choose a simple, uniform voting method for all federal ballots, and allow for walk up voter registration with proper identification.  Let’s also separate federal elections from local elections while we’re at it.

- Also, how about publicly funded elections?  The idea has some holes, but it’s a worthy topic of a national discussion.  Removing PAC and special interest money from politics will change this country for the better, forever.

- Term limits for State Assembly, State Senators, Governors, and county level offices in New York State.  The game is rigged for incumbency and until that changes, NY will keep sinking.

- Is Rachel Maddow the most interesting breath of fresh air in cable news or what?  I love her show.

- Obama will either win in a total landslide or will lose by one electoral vote…tomorrow is that fucking unpredictable.

- Vote, it’s not a privilege it is a right.  It’s a right that millions on this planet would die for.  Don’t waste it by sitting on your ass or being cynical or “above it all”.  Just vote.

- I was going to write a long winded piece on why I support Barack Obama for President, but Andrew Sullivan is a better writer than I am and he summed it up.  Read it.

Let’s hope that when we wake up Wednesday morning, this man is our next President.  Know hope.

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Local Election Predictions

By Chris Smith |

Normally, I would have made an endorsement post like I have for the previous three years, but there are few local candidates to whom I would give an endorsement.  So, I just skipped it.  I figured it would be more interesting to make some predictions on election eve…but only for the races I’m interested in.  It’s my blog and that’s how I roll.

When it comes to winning elections, there are four things a candidate needs to do to win a race.

1.)  Define yourself

2.)  Define your opponent

3.)  Define the stakes

4.)  Raise a fuckload of money

Who has done the best job accomplishing these four things in their respective race?

Let’s start with the local Congressional races…

Projected Winner:  NY-26 Christopher Lee (R)

The DCCC has dumped nearly $2MM into this race and I am still trying to figure out why they bothered.  Alice Kryzan is going to get smoked in this district, it’s not even gonna be close.  While Chris Lee has nothing in his past which would indicate even a shred of credibility as a candidate (aside from winning membership in the lucky sperm club), Alice Kryzan is exactly the kind of candidate that can’t win in a rural/new money Republican district.  Lee’s money advantage and his enrollment advantage in the district make it simple for him to simply play defense and win.  Kryzan was defined early as a traditional liberal trial attorney who wants to raise taxes, take away your Doctor and help fix the environment.  Not winning issues in this district.

For all of Jon Powers flaws, he was the one Democrat who could win this district.  He had crossover appeal as a vet and former Republican.  It was easy to project McCain/Powers voters in the hinterlands of this district, but very few McCain/Kryzan voters.  Unfortunately, this seat goes to a douche like Lee by default.  He’ll take the the GLOW counties 70-30 and Erie/Monroe County 52-48 based on heavy Obama turnout which will give a slight boost to Kryzan and arm people with false hope as the early returns trickle in.

Projected Winner NY-27:  Brian Higgins (D)

Brian Higgins has turned out to be a pretty damn good Congressman, eh?  He is in tune with his district on local issues and is a leader for progress on the waterfront.  He has also exercised independence from the party on national security, war funding and ethics reform.

Dan Humiston appears to be a guy who felt like wasting a couple hundred grand on a Congressional run to help market his company.  There is no explanation for his half-assed campaign and he has done absolutely nothing to define himself, his opponent, or the race.  His slogan is “It’s Time”.  What the fuck is that supposed to mean?  Ya know what, “it’s time” for Higgins to win by a landslide, I’ll go with 80-20 as heavy Obama turnout bumps up Higgins numbers.

State Senate Races:

SD-58:  Bill Stachowski (D)

Whoa!  Someone woke Bill Stachowski up.  After 30 years of simply being present, the Chauncey Gardner of local state politicians woke up in August to find he had an actual race on his hands.  Stachowski is the most unexciting of our local state delegation and has little to show for thirty years of unfettered incumbency.

Enter bejoweled sideshow Dennis Delano.  The Buffalo cop did a good job early of defining himself and raising money but he didn’t do enough work on defining his opponent as a do nothing boil on the ass of the WNY political scene.  Delano didn’t do that because in so doing he would have exposed himself to be less than literate on the issues and also exposed himself to criticism from the local Dem machine.  He had hoped to get enough of an early lead to play defense, but it hasn’t worked.  Heavy turnout for Obama in the heavily Democratic 58th will swamp Delano and ensure that Stachowski can go back to his regular schedule of naps and ignoring problems.

SD-59:  Dale Volker (R)

Yes, the epitome of everything that is wrong with Albany will be sent back for yet another term of spending $1MM on staff and thumbing his nose at responsible, ethical government.  What a dick.

Early on, Kathy Konst couldn’t seem to decide between running for Congress in the 26th or taking Golisano’s money to run in SD-59.  She got off to a lousy start and Volker had a tough primary battle on his hands.  Konst should have used that time to better define herself with a solid ground game, biographical mailers and some limited media buys in the far reaches of the district.  For some reason, she didn’t get her house in order.  After his primary win, Volker immediately went for the jugular and defined Kathy as a quasi-felon for voting chicanery and exposed her husband to be the worst businessman this side of Ken Lay.  Her seeming lack of answers and slowfooted response to Volker’s charges absolutely destroyed her.  She has gotten her shit together in recent weeks, but it’s too late in the game for a candidate with a short budget.  Golisano didn’t seem to come through with the money needed to win and now she’s damaged.  ‘Tis a shame, she would have been a phenomenal state senator.  Let’s hope she recovers and can seek another office in the future.

SD-61:  Joe Mesi (D)

Would I tell Joe Mesi he was unqualified to serve in the State Senate?  Would I tell him that I think he’s not smart enough for the job?  Would I tell him to his face that he is one of the least qualified candidates to ever run for political office in WNY?  Not a chance, he’d punch my face in.  So, I’ll predict that most voters in SD-61 will be intimidated by Mesi showing up at their house to deliver a ferocious beatdown if he finds out they voted for a joke like Mike Ranzenhofer rather than him.

There are no winners in this election, especially those who will be represented by either one of the laziest and most uninspired county legislators in recent history or a guy who until last year made a living by getting punched in the mouth.  Democratic turnout in this district should be strong, especially in Mesi’s stronghold of Tonawanda and I think it’ll be enough for him to eke out a win.  Ranzenhofer did a poor job of defining himself since he has 20 years of doing pretty much nothing as a legislator.  What a FAILboat of an election.

The rest of the races were over after the primaries due to gerrymandering or I just don’t care.

As my friend DJ Lance Rock would say…

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2008 Electoral College Prediction

By Chris Smith | November 3, 2008

If you could gamble on this, I’d tell you to bank this.

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The Dunning-Kruger Effect

By Chris Smith | September 24, 2008

After watching this:

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All I could think of was this:

The Dunning-Kruger effect is the phenomenon wherein people who have little knowledge (or skill) tend to think they know more (or have more skill) than they do, while others who have much more knowledge tend to think that they know less.

  1. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill.
  2. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others.
  3. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy.
  4. If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.

McCain 08!

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